Asteroids showing up on the radars of researchers is a common occurrence. However, this one appears to have something new. YR-4, an asteroid first spotted in late
December, raised concerns when its likelihood of
hitting Earth exceeded 1% by January 27th. Although it
doesn’t seem like a large amount, this alarmed the
United Nations-mandated International Asteroid
Warning Network (IAWN) and they soon took action.
The asteroid, measuring 100–130 feet wide, became the
riskiest ever detected—its probability of Earth impact
peaked at 3.1% for 2032, though it has since decreased
to 1.5%. “For asteroids larger than 30 metres (98.4 feet)
in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest
impact probability reached, and the longest time spent
with an impact probability greater than 1%,” according
to the European Space Agency (ESA). “It is important
to note that this rising impact probability is an expected
result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the
asteroid’s orbit. …
As more observations of the asteroid are made, the
uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the
impact probability may continue to rise. If we reach a
point at which Earth is no longer inside this region, the
impact probability will quickly drop to 0.” At the
moment, astronomers are using many telescopes in
order to accurately calculate the asteroid’s chances of
impact. According to Ashley Strickland, a scientific
writer for CNN, “The asteroid was discovered after
passing by Earth in December, and after April, it won’t
be visible again until June 2028, when it is expected to
fly harmlessly by our planet again.” Getting more
information, like finding the space rock’s trajectory,
would help researchers to conclude its likelihood of
reaching our planet. Overall, despite its record-setting
status, YR-4’s chance of hitting Earth remains very low,
and current calculations suggest the risk is approaching
zero.